Civil War II: The Coming Breakup of America

Full Hypothesis

What will sustain out power hungry future? Solar? Wind? Geo-thermal? The life giving electricity is becoming a nuisance in the battle for cheap energy, and we are loosing.

What happens when the oil runs out? This is the question that many are, or will definitely be asking soon. We are just so dependant on the stuff, we use it for out electricity, to fuel our cars, to lube out engines and to even make our take-away Mc Donalds soft drink lids.
Oil is running out, and at an alarming rate. we have already passed the peak of our oil extraction capabilities (essentially we have used half of it up).

"When an oil well is half empty, you’ll have to go through an increasing amount of trouble to pump the last bit up. Think of it like eating yogurt out of a carton. At first, you’ll have no trouble to bring out spoonfuls of yogurt at all. But after a while, you’ll carefully have to maneuver your spoon around along the sides and corners of the carton to bring the last bit out. In oil wells, it goes the same way."

Such an event will (and already is) cause(ing) increased oil prices, which will escalate exponentially over the next few decades. That's right folks, your soda will cost 200% more because of that plastic lid, better hang on to it.
But really, if you look in one room of your house you will see that there is so much that uses oil at some time or another. Plastics, nylons, paint, varnish, metals, lubricants, gas bottles for the barbaque, pretty much everything synthetic in fact is made using oils. Once the supply goes away, all those things will be more expensive to make, or they just couldnt be made at all, or at least they couldnt be able to be shipped to the destination, be it your house or the store.

So what do we do? Of course that obvious answer is to build some renewable energy sources. Solar Panels, Dams, Wind turbines, geo-thermal plants and fusion sound like the promises of the future of our oil crisis.
There is some problems though, firstly it takes oil to create all of them somewhere down the line:

Solar panels need to be assembled, and need plastics also. They are however the most inefficient of any renewable energy source, absorbing only 18% of all energy that hits the panel. They also require the sun, which isn't the most reliable thing to power the world with.

Dams? I personally hate the things, they destroy the ecosystems that lives around the river. They are also the biggest and most costly (oil wise) to build, and they require copious amounts of Texas gold to be built. (those cement trucks cant drive on just good will.)

Wind you might say then... Wind is also very un reliable, they can only produce their maximum efficiency if the wind is just at the right speed. Too slow and the thing wont turn. Too fast and the thing could be damaged. Maybe Old farmer Bob's house could use one, but not the entire world. it would take literally a field of wind turbines along the entire coast of the UK just to power England.

Geo-Thermal? What on earth is that you might say. Well its simple, Geo Thermal just means Hot(thermal) Rock(geo-) so essentially it means using the heat of the earth to produce power. this can be done in 2 ways: First there is the obvious way, to use a volcano. By far the most efficient way of producing clean energy there is. the only problem that it can only be done near a volcano (or fissure), which aren't exactly in large supply. However those living near one, Iceland for example, can reap all the benefits it can. All it needs to is a hole and a pipe, with a turbine on top.
I said 2 ways right? I sure did, the second is possibly the most unheard of and is simply called "Hot Rock". Also known as green nuclear, it uses the natural nuclear decay in some kinds of rocks to heat water, pretty much in the same way as the latter.. all it requires is some green ( ;) ) rock and some holes in the ground and your set. just Plonk a turbine on top and let the awesome nuclear reactor of the Earth do the rest. Massively efficient, but like the volcano method, requires the correct conditions to work, which are in large amounts in certain countries, but hardly enough to have some global benefit. Ironically it is in fact the Oil companies that have to drill the holes for them to work, seeing as no one else has the equipment.

So, you say, Fusion? Well, too bad because it doesn't exist yet. not for another 50 or so years either. However when it does, it would be a trillion times more efficient than fossil fuels and a billion times more efficient than fission. however, apart from not existing it has another draw back. Over time it will cause the building it is stationed in to become radio active, creating a big useless pile of radio active waste. Not to mension the danger too, to make this thing work, it needs to heat the chamber to 15 million degrees Centigrade, the same heat as the Sun's core which is not exacly easy to contain. If it were to blow, it would take the entire facility with it.

The Machine Apocalypse
So, what if our machines suddenly broke down? Not just your TV set or your car -- but everything? It wouldn’t exactly kill us on the spot, but we can agree on one thing: it would be pretty apocalyptic. Weirdest of all, the Machine Apocalypse could happen for real.

"We will have no food. We will have no clothing. We will have no access to the information needed to make that food and that clothing. The ending will be sudden and complete. If air systems are needed, the deaths will come in minutes. If water is needed, deaths will come in agonizing days. If food is needed, death will pay a visit only after several excruciating weeks. People escaping the clutches of the Machine will not be able to cope with an environment that doesn't pamper them anymore. They will die clutching the remotes that used to make the Machine do what they wanted and needed. They will die hungry, thirsty, filthy and cold."

New York during a blackout

Now isn't that lovely. There you are, in your civilized world. Suddenly, you’re stumbling about in the dark. The only way to go some place, is on foot. Basic stuff like clocks, fridges, boilers, washing machines and lights will never work again. Pretty soon, your tap will stop delivering water, your money will run out, and the shops will be empty. The economy grinds to a halt, throwing you back into the Middle Ages. And no way you’re gonna dial 911 or e-mail your Congressman. Better use a homing-pigeon, from now on.

There are several reasons for our machines to fail. Since all machines, that use electricity anyway, have an Achilles heel which is electricity actually, they are all vulnerable all the time. If a surge of electricity hit the Earth for some reason, let’s say a large solar storm, there would be a large amount of electro-static build up in the atmosphere. This is essentially what causes lightning only what I’m talking about is many, many times more powerful. It will be conducted by power lines, and the machines themselves and cause the circuitry to burn out. This would happen in an instant if such a scenario were to occur one day. One minute you would be happy watching TV with your air conditioning on full, with ample lighting throughout the house; then all of a sudden that would stop. You would wonder what happened, obviously think it was a power outage, or a circuit breaker switched off if someone turned the toaster on. Then you will perhaps figure out that battery operated things didn’t work either. There would be a burning smell emanating from somewhere, like melting plastic. You’ll call the power company, but there will be no answer as the switch boards would have been fried too.

Eventually word will spread that there was some kind of massive event that caused major power surges and that all electrical equipment, connected at the time or not, will never work again. Perhaps then the government would issue martial law, emergency organizations will be formed. Millions will be wondering the streets, which by now would be littered with stranded vehicles, except diesel powered engines, or those that have become trapped in the gridlock caused by the loss of any organisation what so ever. Then the crisis will set in: food will run out, water will stop running. Since the banks have been fried, all of everyone’s money has been erased, and the small amount still left in paper or coin form will be useless as the economy will be all but vanquished. People will panic and chaos will erupt. Looting, arson, burglary of everything and since the police will be working over capacity, and the army or national guards will have little control over the hordes of angry mobs demanding food, and answers. Disease will spread like wild fire, and wild fire won’t be far behind either. Abandoned buildings will burn with no one to put them out. Hospitals will run out of backup energy and fail. Before this they will be of little effect due to the vastly over crowded wards and the lack of staff, some of which might be the patients. Millions will stave, die of infection caused by the hugely overcrowded refugee camps and general unsanitary conditions throughout or be killed for their food and medical supplies.

So what if all mans machines broke down you say? We can always build more. Not true. If every machine were to fail for some reason or another, then there would be no machines to make the machines. We would be cast into the times before steam power. In fact even further! Since we are so reliant on machines as a society, we won’t be able to cope with the sudden destruction of all that makes us to innovative. No one knows how to make a steam powered factory anymore because it’s useless. No one wants anything to do with it. So when this catastrophic event occurs we will have to invent our way out of the industrial revolution all over again, however, this time without oil or coal. This is a sad prospect of which there is no definite conclusion. We need technology to build technology and high tech clean energy is very high tech indeed. In fact most of it isn’t even off the drawing board yet. Essentially we will be cast into the Stone Age, and not metaphorically either. There are no surface iron mines to be mined up and turned into weapons and tools, because there have already been dug up in the first iron ages. There will be no industrial revolution, because there is no coal. Even worse, since we have cut all the trees down there will be nowhere to live either. We will be stuck living in the festering remains of our civilization, muttering to each other about what went wrong. Those fortunate enough to be self sufficient will enjoy some privileges for a while, although even they need metal tools to work.

In the end the outcome is quite disappointing so say the least. Billions will starve, become infected with simple diseases and viruses, they may or may not have become massively more deadly due to their mutations from antibiotics and other sanitary products. The remaining few will regain their primeval instincts and return to whenst they came. The forests will grow back, engulfing the ruins of our civilization as they do. The survivors will grow with them, steadily regaining their connections with nature that have been lost over the millennia. As the years go by, decades, centuries and the millennia, the old world shall be forgotten, or excluded to myth and legend. Out cities will be forever entombed in the forests that will regain their foot hold on the lands and only decayed ruins will remain, observable to anyone who cares enough to do so where tales shall be told about the people who lived in vast, stone metropolises, who grew out of their hands for them to be replaced by a servant, who betrayed their masters, leaving them in chaos and turmoil. Different stories will evolve over the many years, though I doubt that many will embrace our way of life as anything but one large festering sore, an incurable cancer upon the Earth.

One trillion dollars. The war in Iraq is getting close to crossing the one trillion dollar mark.

Now imagine what that kind of money can do.

We could...

• Install solar power on 40,000,000 homes
• Pay for the construction of 10,000,000 homes
• Build 250,000 schools
• Build 1,000,000 wind turbines capable of a megawatt of electricity each
• Research 43 Manhattan Projects
• Have 7 Apollo programs, going to the moon 7 times each
• Build 1,730 Hoover Dams
• Build 147 Empire State Buildings
• Construct the entire interstate highway system of the United States. Twice.

Or, with that money, perhaps we could spend it figuring out how to:

• Build a battery able to store enough electricity for an electric car
• Find the cure to cancer
• Find the cure to aids
• Discover the secrets of anti-gravity
• Make fusion work
• Make cold fusion work
• Find new ways of farming to feed many more people

Look around. See that world out there? Well, it is about to change - forever. Think of wars, famine, diseases and worldwide turmoil. That’s what’s coming down, as we pass a nasty spike in the statistics called the ‘Oil Peak’. In fact, we may just have passed it already.
The real bad thing is that the Oil Crash is going to happen. Period.